Projecting results of an audit to a larger population of providers can be a serious step. Many of the organizations with which I engage feel this pressing need to use the results of individual provider audits to infer an overall pass/fail rate, either to everything that provider does or to…
Part II continues to explain the nuances in the changes made by CMS to its statistical sampling methodology. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently made significant changes in its statistical sampling methodology for overpayment estimation. Effective Jan. 2, 2019, CMS radically changed its guidance on the use…
Effective Jan. 2, 2019, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) radically changed its guidance on the use of extrapolation in audits by Recovery Audit Contractors (RACs), Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs), Unified Program Integrity Contractors (UPICs), and the Supplemental Medical Review Contractor (SMRC). Extrapolation is a veritable tsunami in…
100% error rate audits challenge credibility. Over the past five or six years, I have worked as a statistical expert on hundreds of extrapolation audits. And at least a couple dozen of these were based on 100 percent error rates. That means that the auditor determined that, of all of…
Improper use of extrapolation statistics is stunningly egregious, according to the author. Over the years, I have written extensively about the statistical extrapolations that are a large part of the audit process. In general, auditors—both government and private—make use of the extrapolation to significantly increase the overpayment estimates imposed on…